To estimate the impact of the AHCA, the CBO had to compare it to predictions of coverage under the current law, the ACA. If the prediction for the current law is incorrect the prediction of lost coverage will be too.Yet the CBO has consistently overestimated future ACA coverage gains. In 2012 it predicted an additional…

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The House-passed Obamacare repeal bill would leave 12.6 million more Americans uninsured over the next decade and reduce federal spending by $328 billion, according to an analysis released today by CMS’ Office of the Actuary. The coverage estimate is well below the 23 million more uninsured that the CBO has projected under the American Health Care Act. The congressional…

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Senate Republicans raced Tuesday to bridge divisions over rickety insurance markets and billions of dollars in insurance subsidies in their pursuit of a health-care deal. While President Donald Trump predicted a deal would emerge, hard work remained behind the scenes. Much of this week’s negotiations have focused on specific measures to help shore up the individual insurance…

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Reforming Medicaid does not have to be an all-or-nothing approach, where millions of people are thrown off of the program to reduce the budget. The states, which administer Medicaid, are closest to the problem and also are in the best position to develop solutions for Medicaid. With leeway to innovate and the pressure to achieve…

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The House passed legislation Tuesday to ensure that immigrants in the country illegally can’t access tax credits for health insurance premiums. Rep. Lou Barletta’s (R-Pa.) bill, approved in a largely party-line vote of 238-184, would require the Treasury Department to confirm that people applying for the tax credits are verified as U.S. citizens or legal residents…

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Senate Republicans said Tuesday that President Donald Trump was open to their suggestions about how to stabilize the Obamacare exchanges, but did not give any clear policy updates, leaving insurers hanging. Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price also highlighted the individual and small group markets as one of the “toughest challenges” for his employees,…

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From the earliest days of Obamacare, a great many Democrats and others on the left have wanted a “public option.” At least one plan offered in the Obamacare exchanges should be a government plan, they proclaimed. The state of Nevada may make that wish a reality, if the governor signs a bill just passed by…

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Despite its name and despite some of the more grandiose claims by its supporters, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is failing to make healthcare costs more affordable.  Indeed, it’s possible that the ACA has achieved less than nothing with respect to health cost affordability — meaning less even than a hypothetical scenario in which it…

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We can estimate the impact of the AHCA per-capita cap on the pre-Obamacare Medicaid population by using data from CMS, which expects that the federal government will spend approximately $6.7 trillion on the legacy Medicaid program from 2017 to 2026. If we apply CBO’s estimate of future medical inflation to the AHCA, we get to a spending…

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One of the biggest problems health care experts in Washington, D.C. make is that they think the whole world is about health care. If a bill addresses the health policy, they think, it’s a good bill. Well, health policy has a lot of spillover today onto tax policy (there are twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare,…

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