President Trump has proposed a budget that increases government spending from $4 trillion today to $5.5 trillion in 2027. Only in the alternative reality of Washington can this be described as “budget cuts.” Looking at individual programs, it is a gross mischaracterization to state that spending on Medicaid programs will be cut. The new budget proposes to increase federal Medicaid spending from $378 billion a year today to $524 billion a year in 2027. It shows how far removed Washington is from everyday Americans for this increase of $146 billion to be called a cut. The fundamental problem is that special interests are addicted to the rising path of spending. Altering this path by increasing spending at a slower rate opens change-makers to extraordinary attacks.
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The entire Republican reform effort hinges on getting the tax credits right. A poorly-designed credit will lead millions to lose their health insurance and incentivize them to remain poor. It will harm efforts to reform the Medicaid program, because the insufficient tax credits won’t form a viable alternative. On the flip side: there is great opportunity in getting health reform right. The right kind of means-tested tax credit could make individual health insurance markets work for tens of millions of Americans. That success, in turn, could improve the opportunities for long-term entitlement reform, by giving Americans a robust option to buy insurance on their own.
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Should Republicans be worried that they will lose control of the House in 2018 because they adopted legislation that repeals Obamacare? Don’t bet on it. Under the current House bill, states could let insurers take a person’s health status into account when deciding how much to charge in premiums. According to the media narrative, this would take away coverage from those with pre-existing conditions. The public furor over this allegation is predictable, but that does not make pre-existing conditions an existential threat to Republican political chances in the next election. The GOP plan protects everyone who remains continually covered by health insurance and they cannot be charged more if they have a pre-existing condition.
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