Individual and Small Group Insurance Premiums and the Affordable Care Act: Analytic Results

“This note analyzes the ACA through the use of a large-scale microsimulation model of insurance markets. We
find a rich array of impacts across a variety of insurance products. As shown in the table below, on balance the ACA will raise the costs of exchange-based insurance products (and, accordingly, raise the cost of government subsidies). In particular, consumers may be expected to suffer sharp ‘sticker shock’ upon full implementation of the ACA in 2014 as premiums will at best remain unchanged, and for others may rise as much 13 percent.”