Projected Medicare Expenditures under an Illustrative Scenario with Alternative Payment Updates to Medicare Providers

“In the 2010 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, the Board warns that ‘the actual future costs for Medicare are likely to exceed those shown by the current-law projections.’ The Trustees Report is necessarily based on current law; as a result of questions regarding the operations of certain Medicare provisions, however, the projections shown in the report do not represent the ‘best estimate’ of actual future Medicare expenditures. The purpose of this memorandum is to present an alternative scenario to help illustrate and quantify the potential magnitude of the cost understatement under current law.”