There are three simple numbers Republicans in Congress need to keep their eyes on in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s forthcoming decision in King v. Burwell, no matter what the outcome: 28, 60 and 67.
28: The number of GOP governors in states with a federal health insurance exchange where a combined total of 6.5 million subsidy-eligible residents are at risk of losing those subsidies and their insurance if the plaintiffs win in King. The Department of Health and Human Service will offer these governors a quick fix: Simply deem the federal exchanges an “exchange established by the state” for the purpose of receiving federal subsidies. Without a Republicans alternative for these 28 governors, HHS’ escape hatch is going to look very attractive.
60: The number of votes Republicans must rally to overcome a Democratic filibuster of legislation that might put the president in an awkward position — such as repealing the individual mandate in exchange for allowing the subsidies to continue to flow for an interim period.
67: The number of votes Republicans need in the Senate to overcome a presidential veto — an impossible number. Republicans would have to be content to make Democrats take a hard vote on a full “repeal and replace” bill, losing the battle, but hope that it would set them up to win the war by maintaining the Senate and taking the White House in 2017.